Unofficial iPhone Blog

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In an interesting BusinessWeek story, Arik Hesseldahl asks: “Where does Apple go from here?”

For a company who has made a reputation of surprising consumers and (re)setting the bar, it’s a good question.

Of course, this question is asked on the heels of a mention of a “new product transition” made by Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer during a July conference call with analysts. What barnstorming surprise could Apple possibly have left under its sleeve to reveal in the next 6 to 24 months? “There are only so many world-changing moments that even Apple can create,” Hesseldahl writes.

So he takes a stab at guessing:

1. An Apple Netbook or tablet
   “The Web is rife with rumors that Apple will next introduce a device that bridges the gap between the iPod touch and the Mac—a machine that’s one part mini-mobile PC and one part media and entertainment device. The idea seems obvious to anyone who’s used the iPod touch for e-mail and Web-browsing but wants a larger screen. While other PC companies like Dell and Asustek build mini-notebooks, Apple could best them all, or so the argument goes.”
2. Apple iPhone family.
   “Much like the iPod now comes in four flavors—touch, nano, classic, and shuffle—it’s fair to expect that the iPhone will come in more than one model. The iPhone nano, for example, might appeal to those who think the current model is too big or too expensive.”
3. Nothing.
   “I have trouble imagining the next obvious path that Apple might follow in 2009 and 2010. In fact, the company may very well be nearing a product plateau. And here’s the real kicker: That may not be a bad thing.”

Hesseldahl’s reasoning is this: He sees potential for hardware and software enhancements on AppleTV, “including TiVo-like DVR features” and “a DVD player slot,” but on the whole he sees Apple relying on its “three-legged stool”: the Mac, the iPod (and iTunes) and the iPhone.

“I think Apple can and will do very well to enhance and grow these three legs without the need for building a fourth,” he writes.

I, for one, am not so sure. In the short-term, I can see Apple’s reliance on these product lines. But not over the long-term. iTunes and iPods are almost to the point of saturation in the U.S., in my opinion, so I can only see growth overseas. I like the idea of a diverse family of iPhones — I’m sure Nokia, Samsung, HTC and the rest sure don’t — so I buy that prospect. And, of course, there’s still a lot to be done on the computing front. A lot more market share to be had (sorry, Microsoft).

But, in terms of hardware, I don’t see much more than that. I suspect that Apple may get more into the software/licensing/services game, a la Google. A way to link its devices and create an interlinked, interdependent network of monetization.Yet I ask myself: On the other hand, can Apple fight a two front war?

Fact: The launch of the first iPod occurred seven years ago this month.
Another fact: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer says Microsoft is “David” to Google’s “Goliath.”

Apple’s had issues meeting many of its self-imposed deadlines in the last couple years. Some of the delays, such as Leopard, have been big; others, like the iPhone SDK, somewhat smaller. As we watched the calendar tick over from the end of September to the beginning of October earlier this week, Apple missed yet another of its targets by not releasing its promised push notification system for the iPhone.

Back in June at the WWDC keynote, Apple SVP of iPhone software Scott Forstall took the stage to discuss Apple’s answer to the lack of background applications on the iPhone. Many developers had expressed concern about the limitation which could restrict the usefulness of certain applications, such as instant messenger clients.

Forstall presented a different solution to the problem. Apple would instead roll out a push notification system that apps could use to alert users when remote content had changed. For example, an instant messenger application could display a badge with the number of unread messages, just as Apple’s built-in Mail program does. Applications would also be able to use custom alert sounds and pop-up messages (à la SMS messages) to notify users.

According to Forstall, the notification system would consume less battery life and offer better performance than allowing applications to run in the background. All notifications would run over one persistent connection, and users wouldn’t have to be concerned about dealing with hidden applications running amok.

The notification system, however, wouldn’t be included in the 2.0 iPhone software that Apple also showed off at the keynote. Instead, Apple said that it would be available as of September. Of course, the ninth month has come and gone with no sign of the feature, despite Apple shipping a major iPhone OS update during the same period.

Indeed, reports from some quarters indicate that Apple may have removed the notification system from its beta iPhone OS as early as August, before the 2.1 update was rolled out. Apple did not respond to a request for comment on this story.

If the system was indeed pulled from the beta, it suggests a couple of potential scenarios. With the number of complaints and stability issues that users were experiencing with the 2.0 software, Apple may have wanted to focus on making sure that those problems were resolved in 2.1. Rolling out a brand new feature, especially one as potentially involved as push notifications, could have taken needed resources away from that task.

Another possibility is that after the birthing troubles Apple had with the MobileMe, App Store, and iPhone 3G launches, the company may have decided to spend more time making sure the notification system worked as advertised before rolling it out to iPhone users at large.

Of course, with the revised NDA still covering unreleased software, the status of the push notification system will remain as confidential as Coke’s secret formula until they decide to let us in on the secret.

Flash Magazine reports Adobe Systems’ Senior Director of Engineering Paul Betlem confirmed that Adobe is developing a Flash Player for the iPhone at the Flash On The Beach (FOTB) conference in Brighton, UK. The only problem is that Apple controls which apps get approved for distribution in the App Store and Flash, unfortunately, isn’t going to be one of them.

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Apple has seeded the next iteration of firmware for the iPhone to developers. One of the changes sighted is a revamped user interface for the iPhone’s Safari browser.

The changes are subtle, but notable. The alterations come in the navigation bar at the top of the browser. Gone is the “refresh” button and magnifying glass, which was used to open aGoogle (NSDQ: GOOG) Search bar.

Now, the refresh button appears inside the address bar, and it is smaller than before. Whether or not it will be any more or less usable is unknown at the moment.

Even though the magnifying glass has been deleted (which is a cryptic symbol, if you ask me), Safari now has a Google Search bar next to the address bar, just as in the desktop version of Safari. This way you can enter search text right at the top of the browser without having to open the separate search bar.

Since 2.2 is a major point update, and not a minor one (e.g., 2.1.1), we should expect new features to be added to the iPhone and not just bug fixes. Speculation is rampant that the iPhone will add cut-and-paste functionality at some point, but Apple has given no indication that it will ever provide that feature.

As developers sink their teeth into the firmware update, we’re likely to hear about a few more unearthed gems.

On Tuesday morning, months of anticipation, speculation, software controversy, and hardware rumors came to a head as T-Mobile executives and Google’s top brass unveiled the G1, the first “Googlephone.” As reporters and bloggers got their hands on the detailed specifications about the device, the software, and the terms of service, hundreds of inevitable comparisons were drawn between the iPhone and this fledgling product. But the differences between the two platforms go far beyond simple differences in specs.

Google is pursuing a decidedly different market strategy with Android. The brilliance of Apple’s iPhone strategy–besides the fact that the phone itself is so compelling–was in the sequence of announcements. You can bet your last share of Lehman stock that Steve Jobs had the App Store and iPhone SDK planned from the start, but did not release them initially on purpose. Apple first announced the iPhone in January of 2007, wowed the tech community, built up six months of hot anticipation, and released it in June of the same year. Its market share immediately exploded, well beyond initial predictions, grabbing percentage points in the double digits within months.

Eight months after the iPhone’s launch, we received word from Steve that there would be an iPhone SDK, developer tools, impressive built-in hardware capabilities, and an App Store to buy and sell software, all confirming the suspicion that the iPhone was not just a phone, but a software platform. Since the App Store’s release, Apple and its newfound army of iPhone developers have been raking in the cash.

What’s notable here is the sequence of events. Apple announced an exciting new product, built and fed anticipation, grew market share, announced the SDK, and then released the App Store. Each of these steps was dependent on the former. Without iPhone’s market share, the SDK and App Store would not have been nearly such a success. Without the cult of iPhone that Apple grew even before the product was available, the phone’s market share wouldn’t have grown so large so quickly.

Google, unlike Apple, first announced the software, before the hardware. This was a critical mistake in my book, one which may seriously affect the long-term success of Android. While the Android development tools showed an example phone interface for programmers to play with, there was no guarantee of the phone’s capabilities. Apple made the very smart decision to preemptively bring in big-name companies like EA and AOL to develop sample applications at the SDK annoucement, showing off the power of the device. This gave developers a chance to ponder the vast array of possibilities for applications, and four months to develop them. It is only really in the past month that Android developers have gotten any idea of what their prospective platform holds in hardware possibilities. For example, no one wants their application to show sub-par processor performance or leave behind shiny, new features of the phone.

Furthermore, Google and T-Mobile are walking a dangerous line trying to achieve two difficult goals at the same time. Not only will these two companies obviously try to build up a stake for the G1 in the smart phone market, but they must also try to concurrently attract developers to their platform. Right now, Android involves only the promise of an audience, and it’s not asssociated with any game-changing hardware. And that may be a recipe for a tough sell.

Now, this will certainly get easier as more and more consumers adopt the new phones, as they certainly will. But it’s still a very tricky move. To its credit, Google intelligently brought together the members of the Open Handset Alliance, rallying enough allies to attract lots of attention. Not to mention, of course, the fact that we are talking about Google here, a name which carries more weight than Goliath both in the minds of developers and consumers.

Of course, Apple has its advantages, too: Beside the attraction of already-existent hordes of iPhone users, Apple also constructed its SDK to be similar to the OS X development platform, using similar or identical technologies like Core Animation and advanced networking libraries. However, Google does have the upper hand in this arena, at least in theory. Google choose Java as the language for Android and bundled a plug-in for the popular Java IDE, Eclipse. While Apple also bundled a nice suite of tools for its coders, the Java/Eclipse duo has an arguably much wider pool of talent to pick from than coders who have developed for OS X. I can tell you first-hand that there exists almost no recent Comp Sci graduate in the land that has not used Java with Eclipse at least once in college.

In addition, Android carries the label of “open source” to attract free software devotees, and has no cost, cross-platform tools for download on its site. And let us not forget that Android is an operating system, not tied to one device. It will have some appeal that the iPhone won’t as more and more “with Google” devices are released in the upcoming years. Not to mention that Android will be released internationally on a broad scale soon after it hits the United States, a move which Apple waited a year to make.

As different as these two strategies are, however, they’re both completely characteristic of the two companies in question. Google is all about software across many platforms, whether it be programs that run on OS X, Linux, and Windows or Web applications that run in all major browsers. Google puts every ounce of sweat it has into integrating itself further into your online life, and that’s exactly what Android will help them do.

Apple, on the other hand, is all about hardware and software integration. It’s true that Apple designs beautiful hardware, but it’s not a hardware company. It’s also true that Apple designs great software, but it’s not a software company either. The brilliance of Steve Jobs was to tackle both hardware and software design for Apple products. Apple didn’t design a PC and it didn’t design an operating system. Apple orchestrated an experience.

As both companies entice developers with promises of an easy transition to their platforms as well as the promise of profit, the choices that the programming workforce make in this arena will speak volumes about the future of these new mobile platforms.